Using my data (which I started to record on 09 March 2011), Metro has cancelled almost 9% of morning rush hour city bound trains on the Sandringham line. I will explain how I arrived at this number below. I should also note that I have not included the massive disruption to the Sandringham line last week - if I included this data, the cancellation rate would be even higher.
What is Metro's performance target? The performance target is to run at least 98% of scheduled trains. So, Metro incurs penalties if it cancels more than 2% of services. This sound pretty reasonable doesn't it? 2% is a low number. But, remember that this includes all scheduled services. As I have written previously, it doesn't take into account the weight of passenger numbers - and so it doesn't capture how much real passenger inconvenience is caused. This is why I argue that the Metro performance data is NONSENSE.
Metro publishes its performance data here:
http://www.metrotrains.com.au/About-us/Metro-Performance/Monthly-Performance-Results.html
More detailed data is available from the Victorian Department of Transport here:
http://www.doi.vic.gov.au/doi/internet/transport.nsf/AllDocs/E86D4F30A09DB660CA256F1000218747?OpenDocument
The cancellation data for the Sandringham line is shown below:
| Month | Percentage of services cancelled |
| Feb-10 | 0.9 |
| Mar-10 | 1.6 |
| Apr-10 | 0.4 |
| May-10 | 0.6 |
| Jun-10 | 1.2 |
| Jul-10 | 1.3 |
| Aug-10 | 0.8 |
| Sep-10 | 0.8 |
| Oct-10 | 1 |
| Nov-10 | 1.3 |
| Dec-10 | 1.1 |
| Jan-11 | 0.6 |
| Feb-11 | 6.2 |
| 12 month average | 1.4 |
The February 2011 cancellation rate is higher, but Metro (fairly) notes that this was due to severe rainfall and flooding early in the month. Performance results in the table above are inclusive of these impacts. Excluding the most affected dates (4 - 7 February 2011) the overall percentage of timetable not delivered for February 2011 was 1.1 per cent.
The Metro data therefore suggests that on average only 1% to 2% of services are cancelled. Therefore, Metro rarely gets penalised for cancellations.
What is your experience? Do you think that only 1% to 2% of the trains that you catch (or intend to catch) get cancelled each month? I think that the cancellation rate when I'm travelling (rush hour, Monday to Friday) is much higher - and the data I've collected so far supports this.
Based on the data that I have collected, the "true" cancellation rate for morning city bound Sandringham trains was a whopping 8.7%! That's almost 1 in 12 rush hour trains cancelled. We all know what that means for overcrowding and late running trains.
Here's how I came up with this statistic:
- I have monitored cancellations on three daily scheduled services on the Sandringham line (and only on days that I have actually travelled) during the morning rush hour period.
- I have observed cancellations, and also noted when Metro has sent me a SMS notification of a cancellation.
- I have recorded data for 23 days of travel. Looking at 3 services each day, this gives 69 observations.
- There have been 6 cancellations over this period (possibly more, since I may have missed some).
- The cancellation rate is then: 6/69 = 8.7%
My data clearly shows that Metro's cancellation data is NONSENSE. The vast majority of passenger journeys take place during the rush hour peaks. Cancellations cause huge inconvenience. Metro and the Victorian government would like us to all believe that Metro hardly ever cancels a train (only 1%) - but this is rubbish - the cancellation rate for most commuters is much, much higher. I would guess that across the whole network, rush hour cancellations are running at close to 10%.
We all know that its' not good enough, and it's been going on too long. It's time that we stopped complaining and started to increase pressure on Metro and the government to fix our train system. Write to your local MP, write to the Minister for Public Transport (Terry Mulder), write to the Metro's CEO (Andrew Lezala), write to Andrew Lezala's boss at MTR Corporation (C.K. Chow, in Hong Kong) and tell him what a crap job the company that MTR owns 60% of is doing.
Here are some links to information on The Minister for Public Transport and the leaders of MTR Corporation:
http://www.transport.vic.gov.au/DOI/Internet/Home.nsf/AllDocs/7282FBA99FACA8CACA257846007AA7DC?OpenDocument
http://www.mtr.com.hk/eng/investrelation/governance.html#Senior_Management_Team
Until my next update, good luck with your commuting. You'll need it.
